XAUUSD · Gold vs US dollar · Swing (1–4 weeks) · D1, H4, H1

Structure and reasoning

Levels, events and percentiles are the ones computed by the run on D1, H4 and H1 bars from the capitalcom-demo feed, up to the 02/10/2026 close; macro data come from the FXStreet calendar.

• D1: lower highs and lower lows since the 4,697.04 high (LH 4,399.31, LL 4,110.47). The bearish CHoCH at 4,234.61 is drift quality: it supports the context but does not decide on its own.
• H4: trend down. Its only displacement-quality event is the bearish BOS at 4,254.24.
• H1: on 02/10 price rose to 4,218.96, just below the 4,226.14 cluster, and was rejected. A displacement BOS down at 4,165.85 followed, into the 4,124.71 low.
• The entry waits for a retrace to 4,187.44 rather than selling into daily demand.

Opposite scenario

• Price sits on three stacked demand levels: 4,110.47, 4,098.04 and 4,133.72.
• The last H4 bar swept 4,133.72 and closed near its high.
• D1 is classified as a range, with very compressed volatility (ATR percentile 7).
• The calendar is busy: ISM Services 05/10, FOMC Minutes 07/10, CPI 14/10, PPI and Retail Sales 15/10 (FXStreet calendar).
• A close above 4,226.14 would bring the 4,234–4,399 band back into play.

Terms used in this analysis

Displacement · Drift · ATR (average true range)

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