EURUSD · Euro vs US dollar · Swing (1–4 weeks) · D1, H4, H1
Issued by the engine 14/10/2026 17:20 UTC · published 14/10/2026 21:28 UTC · valid until 11/11/2026, 17:00 UTC
Updated 2026-10-21
Data: D1, H4 and H1 bars from the capitalcom-demo feed (bid), up to the 17:00 UTC close of 14/10/2026. Levels, ATR and percentiles come from these bars. No macro data or calendar: the run does not take the next four weeks’ events into account. Outcome: closed at −1.03R net. It goes into the record like every other.
The move since issue
up down entry stop targets invalidation
H4 bars of the series Yahoo Finance EURUSD rate (EURUSD=X), shifted to the analysis scale with the record basis (−0.00025), from six bars before issue to the end of the horizon (11/11/2026 17:00 UTC). Lines: published entry, stop, targets and invalidation levels; circles mark the recorded events. Bar source: Yahoo Finance; read on 20/10/2026. Not a forecast.
The price now
For context only. The analysis is from 14/10/2026: its levels apply to that moment, not to today’s price. Source: Binance EURUSDT, a stablecoin pair that tracks the rate closely (average gap 0.0002 versus EURUSD=X over the 72 hours measured on 09/10/2026); not the verification series, 48 hourly closes and then the live stream. Not an analysis and not an instruction.
Structure and reasoning
Levels, events and percentiles are the ones computed by the run on D1, H4 and H1 bars from the capitalcom-demo feed, up to the 17:00 UTC close of 14/10/2026; no macro data or calendar.
D1: since late September the swing chain is an unbroken sequence of lower lows and lower highs (LL 1.11607 on 05/10, LH 1.12426 on 09/10), even though D1 is classified as a range.
H4: trend down. The only displacement-quality H4 break in the window is the 12/10 bearish BOS at 1.11836, which took the two-member equal-low cluster at that exact level.
H1: on 14/10 a displacement bearish CHoCH at 1.11875 went through the densest pocket of lows, the five-member cluster at 1.11836.
Liquidity: on 13/10 the deep low sweeps (1.11607, 1.11644 and 1.11713, up to 0.95ATR) produced only a bounce capped at the 1.12111 lower high, before the break.
Entry: the move is already extended (ATR percentile 88 on H1, 78 on D1) and the last D1 and H1 bars closed near their highs. The entry therefore waits for a retest of the broken 1.11836 shelf rather than selling 1.11234.
Opposite scenario
The 05/10 daily sweep was 1.06 ATR deep, and since then price has built a D1 double low at 1.11607 with shallow retests: that is also the shape of accumulation ahead of a multi-week base.
D1 and H1 are classified as ranges: only H4 is trending.
The low clusters between 1.11607 and 1.11872 sit a few ten-thousandths apart on a bid-only demo feed and may be grid artefacts.
If 1.11487 holds on the next attempt and price reclaims 1.11836, the bearish reading loses its basis and the 1.12426–1.12851 band becomes the reference.
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