EURUSD · Euro vs US dollar · Swing (1–4 weeks) · D1, H4, H1
Recorded 03/10/2026 22:41 UTC, market closed · valid until 30/10/2026, 21:00 UTC
Updated 2026-10-04
Data: D1, H4 and H1 bars from the capitalcom-demo feed (bid), up to the 02/10/2026 close; FXStreet macro calendar. Outcome: open. It goes into the record whatever it is, losses included.
Structure and reasoning
Levels, events and percentiles are the ones computed by the run on D1, H4 and H1 bars from the capitalcom-demo feed, up to the 02/10/2026 close; macro data come from the FXStreet calendar.
- H4: the lower-low / lower-high ladder is intact (LL 1.12147 on 01/10, LH 1.12851 on 02/10). It sits inside the mid-September D1 bearish CHoCH at 1.15845.
- Event quality: the only displacement-quality event in the whole window is bearish: the H1 BOS through 1.12649 on 01/10. The bullish events, including the 02/10 H1 CHoCH at 1.12693, are drift: context, not decision.
- Liquidity: the 29/09 D1 sweep of 1.13242 was not reclaimed. On 02/10 the bounce ran the 1.12693 H1 high by 0.87 ATR and was rejected back to a 1.12522 close.
Opposite scenario
- H4 volatility is at the 99th percentile, so the move is already extended; D1 is still classified as a range.
- Soft US data and hot euro-area inflation support the euro: non-farm payrolls at 29k against 90k expected, euro-area inflation at 3.8% against 3.6% expected (FXStreet calendar).
- FOMC Minutes (07/10), ECB Accounts (08/10) and US CPI (14/10) all fall inside the horizon.
Terms used in this analysis
Every Meridian Engine analysis records direction, entry, stop, targets and invalidation before the move; the outcome is checked afterwards on the public price series named on each card, losses included. Waitlist members receive one complete card a week by email; terms are announced at launch.
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